Nepal, a nation where nearly 100% of its electricity is generated from hydropower, has long leveraged its mountainous terrain and abundant rivers to become a significant energy exporter, earning close to $200 million (£147 million) annually from sales to India and Bangladesh. This remarkable achievement, transforming the country from one plagued by chronic power cuts to a regional energy hub, now faces an existential threat from the very natural forces that enable it. The towering glaciers and pristine mountains, the lifeblood of Nepal’s energy independence and economic prosperity, are succumbing rapidly to the accelerating impacts of global warming, laying bare the profound risks to the nation’s ambitious hydropower future, as tragically underscored by a devastating flood event last Wednesday.
The catastrophic deluge, which struck with ferocious speed and intensity, resulted in the confirmed deaths of more than 1,300 individuals, with thousands more reported missing and feared lost. Entire villages, nestled near the border between Nepal and the Tibet Autonomous Region of China, were obliterated, their existence erased by the unforgiving currents. The immediate aftermath revealed a landscape of destruction, particularly for the critical energy infrastructure. A preliminary assessment indicated severe damage to at least 12 vital hydropower plants situated within the Trishuli River basin, effectively knocking out more than 10% of Nepal’s total power generation capacity. Operators, still grappling with the scale of the damage, have conveyed to the BBC that the feasibility of bringing many of these facilities back online remains uncertain, casting a long shadow over the future of the nation’s energy security.
A Chronology of Catastrophe: The Trishuli River’s Volatile History
The "last Wednesday" flood, which occurred on October 15, 2025, according to internal assessments, was not an isolated incident but rather the latest and most severe in a series of increasingly frequent and intense hydrological events that have plagued the Trishuli River basin. This region, known for its steep gradients and complex geological formations, has proven to be an exceptionally volatile environment for infrastructure development.
Just over a year prior, in September 2024, an unprecedented cloudburst event over the Trishuli and Bhote Koshi river basins triggered widespread flash floods across the districts of Rasuwa, Nuwakot, and Dhading. These settlements, strategically located along the riverbanks, are also among those hardest hit by the recent October 2025 disaster. The 2024 floods caused significant localized damage, disrupting transportation networks and agricultural lands, and served as an ominous precursor to the larger calamities yet to come.
Further exacerbating the region’s vulnerability, in July 2025, a glacial lake situated in Tibet’s Gyirong county experienced a catastrophic outburst. This Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) unleashed a massive torrent of water, mud, and debris that surged downstream, sweeping through the very same stretch of the Trishuli River into Nepal. The July 2025 GLOF claimed the lives of at least 11 people and inflicted extensive damage on critical infrastructure, including roads and bridges, effectively halting trade along the vital Nepal-China corridor. The border crossing, a crucial economic artery, was subsequently shut down for nearly six months, only reopening on January 1, 2025, just nine months before the latest devastating flood. This repeated cycle of destruction underscores the inherent dangers of developing infrastructure in such a dynamic and climatically sensitive region, highlighting a pattern of escalating risk that has, perhaps, been inadequately addressed.
Nepal’s Hydropower Backbone: From Scarcity to Surplus
Nepal’s journey to becoming a hydropower powerhouse is a testament to national ambition and strategic development. As recently as 2010, only two-thirds of the Nepali population had access to electricity, and even connected households endured daily power cuts that could last up to 16 hours. This era of debilitating energy scarcity severely hampered economic growth and quality of life.
A concerted national effort, spearheaded by the state-owned Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), initiated a massive expansion of hydropower infrastructure. This was complemented by vigorous campaigns to tackle corruption within the energy sector and strategic agreements to boost energy imports from India during periods of low water flow or high demand. By 2018, these comprehensive initiatives had largely eradicated the daily blackouts, allowing most of Nepal to enjoy an unprecedented 24 hours of continuous power supply. This transformation not only improved the lives of millions but also laid the groundwork for Nepal to transition from an energy importer to a net exporter.
Currently, Nepal boasts an impressive network of 225 operational hydropower plants, with a combined installed capacity exceeding 3,900 megawatts (MW). This capacity is theoretically capable of simultaneously powering approximately three million households across the nation. The majority of these facilities, primarily run-of-the-river projects, are strategically located high in the Himalayan mountains, designed to harness the immense kinetic energy of fast-flowing glacial rivers. These designs typically require minimal or no large-scale water storage systems, making them seemingly efficient but also highly susceptible to the vagaries of river flow and extreme weather events. The pipeline for future development remains robust, with hundreds more such facilities either under construction or in various stages of planning, all aiming to further capitalize on Nepal’s hydro potential and boost its export capabilities.
The Unstable Himalayas: A Climate Crisis Unfolding
The very source of Nepal’s hydropower wealth – the majestic Himalayas – is now its greatest vulnerability. Scientific consensus indicates that the high-altitude regions of the Himalayas are warming at a rate approximately 50% faster than the global average. This accelerated warming is leading to rapid glacial melt, destabilizing mountain ecosystems, and creating new, larger glacial lakes that are prone to catastrophic outbursts. Preliminary investigations into the cause of the October 2025 flash flood have strongly pointed to the collapse of a glacier and its underlying bedrock as the trigger for the deluge, unleashing a massive volume of water and debris downstream.
While scientists often caution against directly attributing single extreme weather events solely to climate change, the broader trend is undeniable. Nepal’s Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (DRRMA) has previously reported that more than nine out of every ten disaster events recorded between 2018 and 2024 were directly "related to climate." This stark statistic underscores the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-induced hazards, from floods and landslides to droughts, which are profoundly impacting the lives and livelihoods of Nepalis and threatening critical infrastructure. The inherent geological instability of the Himalayan range, characterized by active tectonics and steep slopes, further amplifies the risks posed by these climatic shifts, creating a dangerous nexus of natural and anthropogenic pressures.
Immediate Aftermath and Official Responses
In the immediate aftermath of the October 2025 floods, the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), which owns six of the 12 severely damaged facilities, moved to reassure the populace. Rajan Dhakal, a spokesperson for the NEA, confirmed that despite the significant damage, the nation’s electricity supply remained adequate for Nepalese households. This resilience is partly due to the surplus capacity built over recent years and the ability to temporarily increase imports from India. However, Dhakal candidly acknowledged the gravity of the situation, stating, "with climate-related disasters becoming more frequent, the time has come for a rethink of our hydropower policy." This statement signals a crucial shift in perspective, moving beyond simply expanding capacity to critically evaluating the sustainability and safety of current development paradigms.
The human toll of the disaster also became tragically apparent. Reports emerged of potentially hundreds of hydropower labourers, engineers, and local residents believed to be trapped within the mud-filled tunnels and inundated facilities of the damaged plants. Rescue efforts, hampered by treacherous terrain and ongoing instability, underscore the profound safety challenges inherent in operating such infrastructure in a vulnerable environment.
A Call for Rethink: Policy, Design, and Resilience
The devastating events of October 2025 have ignited an urgent conversation about the future direction of Nepal’s energy strategy. Kulman Ghising, Nepal’s former Energy Minister and a key architect of the nation’s energy surplus, described the catastrophic deluge as a "once-in-a-century" event, while simultaneously emphasizing the critical lessons it imparts for the design and siting of future hydropower projects. Speaking to the environmental news outlet Mongabay, Ghising stressed the imperative to "design the plants [to be more] resilient to the floods and, most importantly, adopt early-warning systems as well as robust emergency evacuation measures." This highlights a need for a paradigm shift from purely engineering efficiency to comprehensive disaster risk reduction.
Rajan Dhakal from the NEA further elaborated on potential adjustments to Nepal’s hydropower strategy. He suggested a pivot towards reservoir-based plants, which, unlike the prevalent run-of-the-river schemes, would not necessarily need to be situated high in the mountains. These reservoir systems offer the advantage of storing water and releasing it in a controlled manner, thereby mitigating flood risks and ensuring a more stable power supply. However, Dhakal also cautioned that such projects entail significant economic costs, requiring massive initial investment, and come with their own set of environmental considerations, including potential displacement of communities and impacts on downstream ecosystems. The trade-offs are complex and require careful deliberation.
Dhakal also admitted a critical oversight in past practices: even if climate risk assessments were carried out, "the designing of the plants may not have been done accordingly." This candid admission underscores a gap between theoretical understanding of risks and practical implementation in construction. "Clearly we will need to improve in the way we build and operate our hydropower plants," he added, indicating a recognition that systemic improvements are necessary across the sector.
Diversification Debates: Solar, Wind, and the "Eggs in One Basket" Dilemma
The recent disaster has intensified calls for Nepal to diversify its energy portfolio, moving beyond an almost exclusive reliance on hydropower. Kushal Gurung, a renewable energy expert and founder of the clean tech firm WindPower Nepal, articulated this sentiment clearly: "We should not be putting all our eggs in one basket in these dangerous times." He advocates for a serious embrace of alternative energy sources, such as solar and wind power, arguing that this necessitates a fundamental revision of the current energy policy, which he describes as "very pro-hydropower."
This perspective is echoed by Vivek Shastry, a researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. Shastry argues that "meaningful additions of wind and solar generation is a resilience strategy that can limit single-point or interconnected electricity system failures in the future." The logic is compelling: a diversified grid is inherently more resilient to localized disasters affecting a single energy source. A recent report by the German aid agency GIZ further bolstered this argument, suggesting that Nepal’s technical potential for energy production from solar power is approximately ten times greater than that of hydropower. This immense untapped potential presents a clear pathway for diversification.
However, the path to diversification is not without its challenges and proponents of hydropower. Puspa Sharma, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asian Studies, agrees that Nepal must diversify but cautions that this can only be done "to a limited extent." While acknowledging the untapped capacity in wind and solar, Sharma firmly believes that "hydropower really is the one that gives Nepal massive competitive advantage vis-a-vis its South Asian neighbours," citing various studies comparing renewable energy potential across the region. The sheer scale, reliability, and export potential of hydropower, particularly during the monsoon season, make it a difficult competitive advantage to abandon entirely. The debate thus centers on finding an optimal balance between leveraging natural strengths and mitigating inherent risks.
The Role of International Investment and Accountability
Despite the increasingly evident disaster risks, hydropower continues to attract significant large-scale investments in Nepal, often from international financial institutions. Climate activists and environmental watchdog groups have voiced concerns that funding has persisted without adequate consideration for these known dangers.
The Upper Trishuli-1 project, for example, valued at approximately $647 million and largely destroyed by the October 2025 floods, was one of Nepal’s largest foreign direct investment ventures. Its prominent backers include the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the private sector arm of the World Bank Group. Similarly, the Upper Trishuli 3A project, also severely impacted, received substantial funding from China’s Export-Import Bank.
Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers & People (SANDRP), has been a vocal critic of the international lenders. He contends that these institutions were "acutely aware of the extreme danger to which they were exposing thousands of labourers, officials, residents, rivers, infrastructure and landscape." Thakkar asserts that the lenders’ "own reports repeatedly highlighted it. But they did not take any preventive steps, did not demand stringent checks and balances, nor were they prepared for a calamity they knew could occur." This criticism raises serious questions about the due diligence processes and the ethical responsibilities of international financiers in supporting projects in high-risk, climatically vulnerable regions. The pressure to develop and meet energy demands often appears to outweigh comprehensive risk mitigation strategies, leading to potentially devastating consequences.
Financial Fallout and Future Outlook
The financial repercussions of the escalating flood events are already being keenly felt by private operators within Nepal’s hydropower sector. Uttam Bhlon Lama, from the Independent Power Producers’ Association of Nepal (IPPAN), revealed that insurers have paid out approximately $40 million for flood-related damages to more than 20 privately owned plants over the past three years alone. This figure, though substantial, represents only a fraction of the total economic losses, which include lost revenue, reconstruction costs, and the broader economic disruption caused by power outages.
Lama issues a stark warning: insurance premiums for hydropower projects in Nepal are rising significantly, threatening to make the cost of doing business "unfeasible." This escalating financial burden could deter future private investment, slow down new project development, and potentially lead to the abandonment of existing projects if they become too expensive to insure and operate safely. The long-term sustainability of Nepal’s hydropower-centric development model is thus not only an environmental and engineering challenge but also an increasingly pressing financial one.
As Nepal confronts the dual imperatives of energy security and climate resilience, the path forward is complex. The nation’s natural advantage in hydropower remains undeniable, but the escalating risks demand a profound shift in approach. This includes not only more resilient plant designs and rigorous site selection but also robust early warning systems, comprehensive emergency response plans, and a serious re-evaluation of its energy diversification strategy. The tragic events of October 2025 serve as a somber reminder that the forces of nature, amplified by a changing climate, can swiftly dismantle even the most ambitious human endeavors, necessitating a future where development is inextricably linked with environmental stewardship and adaptive planning.
